Reposted with permission, in an effort to help stop the spread of misinformation.
Update: H1N1/A 2009 Mexico Flu (Swine Flu..whatever..)
"Swine Flu" isn't really "swine". When the virus jumped from pigs to humans, it recombined with other influenza genomes to create a brand new strain. This virus has the H1N1 type A profile, but it incorporates human, swine and avian influenza "parts" that has created this new strain. This is NOT unusual for influenza! Its a clever virus and has done this many many many times in the past. This strain has "sustained lateral transmission" within the human population, which means that its infectious from person to person.
There are really only two reasons scientists are "concerned" about this strain:
a. New strain never seen in human population. That unknown factor makes it a wild card, so the severity of it cannot be predicted except by real time global observation. Human have no latent immunity to this new virus, so it can be severe. However, there's some speculation at the CDC that people that have had a repeated history of flu immunizations might have *some* immunity to it, enough to reduce symptoms. However, the data is just not out there yet. Perhaps in a few years with better epidemiology data, a scientific conclusion can be made. This "new" virus is the result of "zoonotic shift", which means it jumps species, that is, from pig to human. When that happens in nature, scientists take notice! This is why "Avian Flu" (H5N1) is of concern for a pandemic.
b. Incidence of higher mortality in "low risk" individuals. When the outbreak first occurred, the mortality of "low risk" Mexicans (i.e. healthy, young adults) was much higher the seasonal flu strains. With a new strain, when we first see this, this is indicative of a very, very dangerous influenza outbreak (e.g. 1918 Spanish Flu). However, just in one week, its obvious Swine Flu is really not that dangerous. The unusual mortality occurred in Mexico, but other countries with outbreaks are not seeing mortality even remotely that high. In fact, the contrary is true, based on statistics, this strain is has a lower mortality compared to the seasonal influenza. Naturally... this *can* change. Remember I said this is a "new" virus, thus its long term epidemiology is not known.
Because of these concerns, the media, and thus the public, are unnecessarily worried over this flu. Stupid shit keeps getting propagated by the ignorant, fearful and conspiracy theorists, and the result is damaging.
DON'T be more worried about this flu than you would for any other seasonal flu!!!
They've learned a few new things that seem to be a trend with this virus. Now, mind you, its still "early" in this pandemic's life cycle, so things can change, but certain facts are looking true: [Emphasis mine. ~j]
1. Its rate of infection is flattening. This means, its not as infectious as originally feared. There will certainly be new cases, and it will be all over the globe given time, but its not going to become an uncontrollable wildfire over the globe. Remember that prep school in New York City that had a few dozen cases? The incidence of new cases with family members of the sick children and their classmates has leveled out.
2. The rate of mortality appears to be less than "regular" (i.e. already known) influenza strains in developed countries. Its prognosis appears typical as well (i.e. low risk patients are low risk, high risk patients are still high risk). Scientists will be paying extra close attention to impoverished areas of the globe like Africa and parts of Asia to see how the prognosis unfolds there. We'll see. Please keep in mind, that "regular" seasonal flu kills about 36,000 people every year just in the US!
Now you know why I'm an overt proponent of seasonal flu shots...
Lastly:
1. Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your !&%@(*&@ hands! Seriously.. this reduces your risk of infection by 50%. Wash them frequently. Wash them CORRECTLY. This means vigorous scrubbing with soap for at least 15 seconds before rinsing. Doing what I do for a living, I wash my hands at least a dozen times a day. I've been washing them more, and after I've gone into public, crowded places (conference rooms).
2. While Purell cannot legally claim their alcohol-based sanitizers kill viruses, I can assure you they do. As I said previously, there's scientific evidence they do inactivate viruses on your hand when used correctly This means a generous (quarter-sized) dollop in your palm, and briskly rubbed over your hands so they're "wet" for at least 15 seconds. Keep rubbing until naturally dry. Carry a small bottle of this stuff with you during the day to use between hand washings. Really... just #1 and #2 are strong defenses against catching influenza.. ANY influenza (and adenoviruses..and rhinoviruses....and rotaviruses..and enteroviruses.. and Norwalk virus.. etc.)
2a: I guess its common sense to keep your hands and fingers out of your nose and mouth.. yes? That's the primary, and most common route of influenza infection. Not really "breathing it in from the air", but picking the virus up on your hands and transferring it to your face. Wash your hands! Purell those boys!!!
3. Face masks don't do anything when worn "in public". Don't bother. The only time they might be helpful is if you're in a very close proximity to an infectious person or in an enclosed room with them. Good example of this would be if you're taking care of a sick family member. Only N95 NIOSH graded masks will do anything. These might intercept aerosol particles carrying virus. These are sometimes told as "tuberculosis grade" face masks. But generally, like when on public transport, these won't do any good. I would say get one when inside a sick patient's bedroom, and consider that room quarantine.
4. Stay away from sick people! This sounds like a no brainer, but if that guy on the bus is coughing or sneezing, or just *looks* sick, move as far away from him as possible.
5. If YOU get sick.. for God's sake.. STAY HOME and OUT OF THE PUBLIC for at least 48hours after the symptoms go away. Send sick co-workers home! Get on their case about it!!!
6. The CDC "Phase 5" pandemic alert is solely used as a tool to allow governments to prepare for the pandemic. It does NOT indicate the severity of the flu or its mortality! You shouldn't panic when you hear that the pandemic phase has been increased. It merely allows authorities to implement plans and funding to combat the spread. The professional response to this outbreak has been phenomenal, so there's a good chance we'll not see a "phase 6".
There.. I've said my peace! Unless there's a serious change in the flu's spread, that's all I've got. This flu is now part of the regular strains we'll see seasonally, I'll bet.
~j
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